“First I want to thank whoever read my last post, and would like to thank whoever is taking the time in reading this. I also want to thank all of you who replied to my e-mail, but would suggest that you leave your comments on the
post itself so we could actually engage in a debate. Try leaving polite comments when you do, respecting each other’s points of view.”
Ignorance: Lack of knowledge, education, or awareness.*
Tunnel vision: Extreme narrowness of viewpoint.*
Groupthink: A pattern of thought characterized by self-deception, forced manufacture of consent, and conformity to group values and ethics.*
*Please note that these definitions are taken from the Merriam-Webster online dictionary.
First I want to start by asking all of my readers (especially the educated ones) to try and read this with a level of open mindedness. And stop being victims of the propagandas that are launched at you by your leaders (Whether it’s a 14th of March propaganda or of an 8th of March propaganda, I am not excluding any party here).
Below you will find the List of questions I will be discussing in this post. If I didn’t answer all of the questions you e-mailed me please make sure to note that in the comments section, so that I will address it in my next post.
1. Why is the U.S supporting Lebanon?
2. Why is Syria interested in Lebanon?
3. Why will the U.S not give in to Syria’s demands?
4. Why a Lebanese civil war benefits Syria and not Israel?
5. Why is Iran a major player in this situation?
6. Why does Syria have a say in Iran’s decision?
7. What is the outcome of all of this chaos?
8. Where is March 8th (Especially Michel Aoun) going wrong?
9. Where is March 14th going wrong?
10. What should WE (The Lebanese youths) do?
1. Why is the U.S supporting Lebanon?
I must admit. This is quite hard to grasp at first. But it is true.
The U.S has proven to the world that it has done a bad job, but I mean BAD job in handling the Iraq war. Since then, it has been trying to prove that even though things might not always go as planned, it is going to support any form of democracy in the Middle East. Considering the close ties that Hariri had built throughout his years with the western world, the U.S saw itself backing up his government. But what’s important to note in this situation is that the U.S isn’t alone in this. The government is actually backed up by the all of the western powers. After the 2005 assassination of Hariri, somebody had to contain the situation before it went out of hand. Divisions in the country at that point were obvious, and if the situation wouldn’t have been contained properly, chaos would have reigned in the Middle East. Mass demonstrations took over the country demanding the pullout of the Syrians, and if it weren’t for U.S pressures, Syria would have never pulled out. Since then, the world’s hegemon has been supporting the Lebanese.
2. Why is Syria interested in Lebanon?
Well if you don’t already know the answer to this question you’re seriously impaired. But lucky you, I’m here to lay out the main reasons.
Throughout its occupation, Syria has dug its roots in the Lebanese economic and political apparatus.
Economic motive:
Workers – Over a million Syrian workers were present during the Syrian occupation (2003). These workers transfer a total of 3 Billion dollars in hard currency back to their families in Syria each year.
Water Supply – The most prominent example is the control of three quarters of the nahr el 3assi to irrigate Syrian agriculture.
Export – Syria’s dairy and agricultural products, its poultry and most importantly its cotton.
Illegal trade – Syria’s elite controls this turf. Illegal trade includes import of all luxury products with emphasis on stolen luxury cars, control over the electrical industry and the Casino du Liban.
Money Laundering – This territory is the most complex one since it is interconnected with the Lebanese Banking System. Syria’s elite deposits its money in Lebanese accounts and earn up to 30% interest a year.
Political motive:
Arabism – Syria would much rather have control over Lebanon, spreading its socialist ideologies than have a democratic Lebanon where people are mostly westernized.
Israeli confrontation – Syria faced painful consequences with Israel throughout history. Therefore instead of getting its hands dirty again, it would have someone do it for her instead.
Military – Military control over Lebanese territory insures a safety-net for any mishaps with the Israelis.
Foreign policy – Control over Lebanese foreign policy gives Syria power over any decisions taken in the region ranging from oil imports to talks with western powers.
3. Why will the U.S not give in to Syria’s demands?
Throughout history, it has been known that the U.S handed Lebanon in to the Syrians on a Silver plate. However the Syrian / U.S honeymoon never lasted long. Shortly after handing in Lebanon to the Syrians, Syria started usurping its power over Lebanese institutions. At that time, the U.S had its hands full dealing with the fist Iraqi invasion and trying to control its interests in the region. However throughout its occupation of Lebanon, the Syrians engaged in diplomatic relations through the Lebanese government with the U.S executing their orders to keep them at ease. However, Syria’s support for Hezbollah never pleased the U.S and basically led to today’s support for the current government. All reports issued by government agencies and the Iraq study group reject any return of Syrian occupation over Lebanon, for the simple reason that the U.S will not tolerate any support for Hezbollah. And want to get them unarmed as soon as possible.
4. Why a Lebanese Civil war benefits Syria and not Israel?
I agree with all of you who think that the July 2006 war was a total and complete failure for the Israelis. However what we don’t agree on is that if the Israelis really wanted to disarm Hezbollah they would have done so without hesitation. But what kept them from eradicating them is the following:
Media Coverage – This war received more attention throughout the world than any other war has ever received and this includes both Iraqi invasions.
Lebanese Government – The current government plaid the biggest war in stopping the aggressions. In fact, if it weren’t for the diplomatic ties that Hariri had built throughout his reigning years, Lebanon would have been brought back to the Stone Age. The government used its ties with Saudi Arabia to negotiate with the U.S over a quick cessation of Israeli hostilities.
Having said that, we now understand why the Israelis are facing trouble within their government since the objectives set were never achieved.
Moreover it is important to note that if a Lebanese civil war takes place, it is unquestionable that the sole winner would be Hezbollah. Thus completely undermining Israeli plans for the region. In face the sole beneficiary of a Lebanese civil war would be the Syrians, since the reason they entered the first time was a civil war, this would give them an easy way in. All they would have to do is promise the U.S that they will contain the situation and stop the chaos.
5. Why is Iran a major player is this situation?
After pursuing its nuclear program, the Iranian regime was completely isolated by all western powers. Its isolation cut its international aid. But what is important to note in the Iranian case is that its closest ally, North Korea, has agreed to stop its nuclear program in exchange of foreign aid. There is no doubt that Iran will actually follow its ally’s footsteps; however until then it is trying to use whatever influence it still has in the current situation to negotiate a better deal with western powers. Its influence includes the price of Hezbollah’s disarmament.
6. Why does Syria have a say in Iran’s decision?
Syrian and Iranian ties are closer than ever. Since both states are isolated by the rest of the western world, they will work together for each other’s best interest. The most important role that Syria plays when it come to Iranian negotiations is that it is Syria and not Iran that holds the key to Iraqi stability. And with the latest terrorist incursions that Iraq has been witnessing, Syria holds a good card in hand.
Another major point to note is that the Syrians are masters at work whenever it comes to organized crime. Therefore, by destabilizing the Lebanese scene it will hold 2 cards in hand instead of one. Negotiating a peaceful Iraq and a steady security in Lebanon, will raise Syria’s chances in returning to its goldmine.
7. What is the outcome of all this chaos?
The outcome of this really depends on how the U.S will handle the current situation. But with the various reports emerging and the obvious pacts and under the table deals happening, it is undeniable that the current government is staying in power. And it is irrefutable evidence that U.S interests lie parallel to Lebanese ones. Unfortunately this can change at any moment depending on how the internal Lebanese crisis will be dealt with.
8. Where is March 8th (Especially Michel Aoun) going wrong?
The first and most important wrong move made by the General was the pact signed with Hezbollah almost a year ago. This deepened the divisions within the Christians. The July war pointed out to the Lebanese how big of a mistake that pact was. In fact the kidnapping of the Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah broke 6 major points addressed in the pact which include but aren’t limited to the following:
· Transparency, openness, and placing the interests of the nation above any other interest, through the reliance on self-driven will, and a free and committed Lebanese decision-making.
· Limit the influence of political money and sectarian fanaticisms.
· Protecting Lebanon from Israeli threats through a national dialogue leading to the formulation of a national defense strategy over which the Lebanese agree to and subscribe to by assuming its burdens and benefiting from its outcomes.
Another important mistake that March 8th is doing is asking for illogical demands.
In fact, no democratic government in the world can be paralyzed because of the opposition’s held seats in it. In fact this defies the very purpose of a democracy.
The last and most relevant mistake to the current crisis is their position concerning the international tribunal. In fact if they were clear from the very beginning, it would have proven to the Lebanese that they have nothing to hide. However Hezbollah kept on postponing their response and got their ministers to resign from the government blaming it on its position towards the tribunal
9. Where is March 14th going wrong?
The most prominent mistake March 14th made is not foreseeing what Michel Aoun’s isolation might lead to. In fact, they should have given him whatever number of parliamentary seats he was asking for during the elections.
10. What should WE (the Lebanese youths) do?
The most important, and clever move one might do right now, is completely detaching himself from any political affiliation, and putting the country’s best interest at first.
Stop being victims of both propagandas and start putting your brain to work.
You are educated for a reason and that is not to blindly follow your leaders.
Put your curiosity to work, and try figuring out why Hezbollah has been shady about the international tribunal.
It’s called tunnel vision. And you are all victims of it.
Israel is not trying to poison the Lebanese by sending toxic balloons!
Hezbollah started being a terrorist organization and stopped being a resistance the moment they signed off on the kidnapping of Israeli soldiers.
Stop being ignorant and start engaging in constructive discussions and not destructive ones.
Try and understand each other’s concern and meet on middle ground.
Stop blaming each other for the billions of dollars in debt; they are not worth all that bloodshed.
ALL CURRENT LEADERS ARE CORRUPT INCLUDING MICHEL AOUN.
