Rafiq Hariri, Lebanon’s five-time prime minister was assassinated on February 14, 2005. Hariri had just left the Lebanese parliament accompanied by the minister of economy Bassil Fleihan. Everything was normal that day, a typical sunny day in downtown Beirut. Everything seemed calm until 12:55 pm when an explosion hit Beirut’s central district. Never before, had an explosion that big gone off in Beirut. The capital was shaken and torn into pieces. Mass hysteria spread among the Lebanese as everyone knew in one way or another, that an explosion that big could only be a terrorist attack that would aim at silencing the Lebanese hope, the Lebanese dream, the Lebanese spirit; one that would take the life of Rafiq Hariri. Until today, more than two years after the assassination, it is still not clear who was behind this attack. The U.N investigation is still ongoing but no definite answer has been reached. People speculate, have doubts, but nobody has a clear answer. In this paper I will start by giving you a brief background of who Hariri was, why he was venerated by many Lebanese and who would actually benefit from his assassination and end up linking events to explain the current Lebanese political impasse.
In 2003, Forbes magazine estimated Hariri’s fortune at $3.8 billion and listed him in its Forbes 100 richest people in the world. Hariri, born in the Lebanese town of Sidon, was raised by a modest family of farmers. He pursued his education in Lebanon and then immigrated to Saudi Arabia, where he made all of his fortune with the help of the Saudi Royal family. Hariri returned to Lebanon in 1990 and started arranging plans to reconstruct downtown Beirut. Hariri was aware that any role in Lebanese politics would have to be approved by the Syrians, and so he did. Hariri was elected Prime Minister in 1992 and restructured the Lebanese economy. Hariri’s main goals were to reconstruct the Lebanese capital and give it back its beauty, unfortunately not everyone agreed with his plans. Hariri had become the most powerful Sunni figure Lebanon had ever known. His contacts reached all four corners of the world orchestrating treaties with the Americans, the French, and the Arabs. Hariri served as Lebanon’s prime minister from 1992 to 1998 then again from 2000 until late 2004. His ever growing grandeur started worrying various actors, and when some saw an opportunity to eliminate him, others saw his assassination’s consequences as a chance to destabilize the country. One can say that his assassination presented various benefits for many actors. In that sense, it is foolish to think that one country could manipulate such an attack, instead this attack must have been orchestrated months ahead, with the coordination of various intelligence services, ranging from the Mossad to the Syrian Intelligence passing by Lebanon’s most complex and well trained party; Hezbollah. The elimination of Hariri would have benefited all three blocs. Behind closed doors Hariri was blunt about the presence of an armed militia in Lebanon. Although he maintained political alliances with Hezbollah, Hariri never supported their military presence. His ever growing popularity presented concerns to Hezbollah as he was slowly seeking their military dismantlement. As for the Syrian presence in Lebanon, Hariri had lobbied among the whole world to pass U.N resolution 1559 that consists of ending Syria’s control over Lebanese politics. From Syria’s side, eliminating a prominent political figure in Lebanon isn’t anything out of the ordinary. Therefore eliminating Hariri would guarantee the Syrians total control over the Lebanese political and economical apparatus. Lastly, the Mossad saw the assassination as an opening to destabilize the country. And an unstable Lebanon, with the help of Western Countries would be westernized to the point that each Lebanese would reject the presence of Hezbollah. Such a scenario is quite an achievement for the Israelis; as their most feared enemy would be taken care of as a consequence of internal problems. Therefore, the role of the Mossad was merely a passive one. The Mossad had to turn a blind eye to what was going to happen, hoping that one of the assassination’s consequences would lead to the weakening of Hezbollah; and with a quick military offensive, Hezbollah would be completely eliminated. Unfortunately both the Syrians and Hezbollah miscalculated the consequences of such an earthquake. What they didn’t take into consideration was the average Lebanese reaction. Previous assassinations executed by the Syrians created a turmoil that lasted a few weeks and slowly faded away. However this one would remind the Lebanese of their 15 year civil war that torn the city apart and brought it back to the Stone Age, and none of them are ready to live these moments again. Hezbollah’s miscalculations lied by overestimating the trust they thought each Lebanese had towards them. Hezbollah had to find out that if it were up to the Lebanese, their existence would be limited to a political party and not an armed militia. As for the Israelis, they had miscalculated the degree of patriotism that the Lebanese had. And if faced by an outside force, whatever the consequences might be, they would support a fellow Lebanese than an enemy that ravaged their country during its civil war. The loyalty of the Lebanese intelligence services at the time of the assassination lied in the hands of the Syrians. The Syrians had appointed key political figures to head the Lebanese intelligence apparatus. Among the chosen ones were Jamil al Sayyed, Mustapha Hamdan, Ali Al-Hajj and Raymond Azar. The four generals were arrested by Lebanese authorities after having witnesses link them to the murder scene. It is believed that Jamil al Sayyed contributed to setting up the assassination plot along with Syrian Officials comprising of Ghazi Kenaan, Rustom Ghazali and Asef Shawkat. As for Mustapha Hamdan, the UN investigation team uncovered evidence linking his involvement after an eye witness testified that Hamdan had told him “We are going to send him on a trip, bye, bye Hariri” (Mehlis, 2005). It is also believed that Mustapha Hamdan had tampered with key evidence that were present at the crime scene, the very same day of the assassination. Hamdan had ordered a bulldozer to cover up the crime scene. Ali Al-Hajj, who once was appointed by the Syrians to head the personal security of Hariri, is suspected of knowing beforehand of the assassination. He was caught by Hariri spying on him for the Syrians and was later fired. In November 2004, Al-Hajj ordered the state security detail around Rafiq Hariri to be reduced from forty personal guards to eight. As for Raymond Azar, he was forwarded on a daily basis wiretapping recordings of Hariri’s telephone calls. He is suspected of having funded and facilitated the various tasks that led to the assassination.
A few days before the assassination, Hariri met with Walid Jumblat, an outspoken critic of Syria’s control over Lebanon. Hariri and Jumblat were political allies and had parallel political goals. During that meeting, Hariri asked Jumblat to leave the country, as he was concerned for his safety. Jumblat neglected Hariri’s concerns and insisted staying in Lebanon no matter what the consequences might be. Various intelligence reports spread around before the assassination, one of which pushed the French president Jacques Chirac to warn Hariri of an attack that was either aimed at the French Ambassador in Lebanon or at Hariri himself. Chirac stressed on the authenticity of the reports. Unfortunately, Hariri over-estimated his security apparatus and didn’t know that a charge of at lest 1000Kg would explode next to his convoy. The U.N has launched its investigation into the assassination ever since the Lebanese government had asked for its help. However the invitation for U.N assistance in solving the crime was far from unanimous and divided the country in two camps; the Opposition led by Hezbollah and his ally General Michel Aoun (Christian Maronite) on one side and on the other, the current government led by Prime Minister Fouad Saniora and various prominent political figures like Samir Geagea (Christian Maronite) and Walid Jumblat (Druze). The current standoff between both parties is because of each party’s position toward the establishment of the International Tribunal. The opposition suspects the U.N of using the international tribunal to declare already made verdicts that will undoubtedly shake the current Lebanese political scene by pointing at Hezbollah. The opposition has its own doubts about the tribunal, stating that this tribunal has been set up to disarm Hezbollah and restructure the current Lebanese political scene by giving unconditional power to the current government. Moreover the opposition is concerned by the fact that the tribunal never examined the possibility of the Mossad being behind such an attack. Their argument clearly states that Israel would be the most beneficial from a weak neighbor than having a united Lebanon. On the other hand, the current government blames the opposition of covering up crucial evidence and backing the Syrians while they are the primary suspects in the murder. Throughout this crisis Hezbollah has been defending Syria and its Lebanese allies more than ever and blaming the U.S government of politicizing the tribunal. Since the beginning of this standoff 4 ministers have resigned from the democratically elect government and the opposition has been demanding the current government’s resignation.
There is no doubt, that the Hariri assassination constituted one of the most technologically advanced assassinations in Middle Eastern history. Thus raising doubts among suspicious Lebanese on who might actually be responsible for this attack. If in fact the attack was orchestrated by Syrian intelligence with the help of Hezbollah, one should be worried about what could lie ahead. Organizing such an attack demands complex resources and a well maintained intelligence apparatus thus worrying the Israelis and plunging the Middle East in a crisis between Hezbollah, Iran and Syria on one side and the Israelis on the other. Another possibility is that it is actually the Mossad that carried out the assassination to try and shakeup the Lebanese political scene by weakening and framing Hezbollah. This could lead to a popular Lebanese uprising against this party. In both cases one thing is surely the same, the main victims of this attack are no other that the average Lebanese, suffering from crippling economy and a political standoff between two political parties that might lead the country to its second civil war.
In 2003, Forbes magazine estimated Hariri’s fortune at $3.8 billion and listed him in its Forbes 100 richest people in the world. Hariri, born in the Lebanese town of Sidon, was raised by a modest family of farmers. He pursued his education in Lebanon and then immigrated to Saudi Arabia, where he made all of his fortune with the help of the Saudi Royal family. Hariri returned to Lebanon in 1990 and started arranging plans to reconstruct downtown Beirut. Hariri was aware that any role in Lebanese politics would have to be approved by the Syrians, and so he did. Hariri was elected Prime Minister in 1992 and restructured the Lebanese economy. Hariri’s main goals were to reconstruct the Lebanese capital and give it back its beauty, unfortunately not everyone agreed with his plans. Hariri had become the most powerful Sunni figure Lebanon had ever known. His contacts reached all four corners of the world orchestrating treaties with the Americans, the French, and the Arabs. Hariri served as Lebanon’s prime minister from 1992 to 1998 then again from 2000 until late 2004. His ever growing grandeur started worrying various actors, and when some saw an opportunity to eliminate him, others saw his assassination’s consequences as a chance to destabilize the country. One can say that his assassination presented various benefits for many actors. In that sense, it is foolish to think that one country could manipulate such an attack, instead this attack must have been orchestrated months ahead, with the coordination of various intelligence services, ranging from the Mossad to the Syrian Intelligence passing by Lebanon’s most complex and well trained party; Hezbollah. The elimination of Hariri would have benefited all three blocs. Behind closed doors Hariri was blunt about the presence of an armed militia in Lebanon. Although he maintained political alliances with Hezbollah, Hariri never supported their military presence. His ever growing popularity presented concerns to Hezbollah as he was slowly seeking their military dismantlement. As for the Syrian presence in Lebanon, Hariri had lobbied among the whole world to pass U.N resolution 1559 that consists of ending Syria’s control over Lebanese politics. From Syria’s side, eliminating a prominent political figure in Lebanon isn’t anything out of the ordinary. Therefore eliminating Hariri would guarantee the Syrians total control over the Lebanese political and economical apparatus. Lastly, the Mossad saw the assassination as an opening to destabilize the country. And an unstable Lebanon, with the help of Western Countries would be westernized to the point that each Lebanese would reject the presence of Hezbollah. Such a scenario is quite an achievement for the Israelis; as their most feared enemy would be taken care of as a consequence of internal problems. Therefore, the role of the Mossad was merely a passive one. The Mossad had to turn a blind eye to what was going to happen, hoping that one of the assassination’s consequences would lead to the weakening of Hezbollah; and with a quick military offensive, Hezbollah would be completely eliminated. Unfortunately both the Syrians and Hezbollah miscalculated the consequences of such an earthquake. What they didn’t take into consideration was the average Lebanese reaction. Previous assassinations executed by the Syrians created a turmoil that lasted a few weeks and slowly faded away. However this one would remind the Lebanese of their 15 year civil war that torn the city apart and brought it back to the Stone Age, and none of them are ready to live these moments again. Hezbollah’s miscalculations lied by overestimating the trust they thought each Lebanese had towards them. Hezbollah had to find out that if it were up to the Lebanese, their existence would be limited to a political party and not an armed militia. As for the Israelis, they had miscalculated the degree of patriotism that the Lebanese had. And if faced by an outside force, whatever the consequences might be, they would support a fellow Lebanese than an enemy that ravaged their country during its civil war. The loyalty of the Lebanese intelligence services at the time of the assassination lied in the hands of the Syrians. The Syrians had appointed key political figures to head the Lebanese intelligence apparatus. Among the chosen ones were Jamil al Sayyed, Mustapha Hamdan, Ali Al-Hajj and Raymond Azar. The four generals were arrested by Lebanese authorities after having witnesses link them to the murder scene. It is believed that Jamil al Sayyed contributed to setting up the assassination plot along with Syrian Officials comprising of Ghazi Kenaan, Rustom Ghazali and Asef Shawkat. As for Mustapha Hamdan, the UN investigation team uncovered evidence linking his involvement after an eye witness testified that Hamdan had told him “We are going to send him on a trip, bye, bye Hariri” (Mehlis, 2005). It is also believed that Mustapha Hamdan had tampered with key evidence that were present at the crime scene, the very same day of the assassination. Hamdan had ordered a bulldozer to cover up the crime scene. Ali Al-Hajj, who once was appointed by the Syrians to head the personal security of Hariri, is suspected of knowing beforehand of the assassination. He was caught by Hariri spying on him for the Syrians and was later fired. In November 2004, Al-Hajj ordered the state security detail around Rafiq Hariri to be reduced from forty personal guards to eight. As for Raymond Azar, he was forwarded on a daily basis wiretapping recordings of Hariri’s telephone calls. He is suspected of having funded and facilitated the various tasks that led to the assassination.
A few days before the assassination, Hariri met with Walid Jumblat, an outspoken critic of Syria’s control over Lebanon. Hariri and Jumblat were political allies and had parallel political goals. During that meeting, Hariri asked Jumblat to leave the country, as he was concerned for his safety. Jumblat neglected Hariri’s concerns and insisted staying in Lebanon no matter what the consequences might be. Various intelligence reports spread around before the assassination, one of which pushed the French president Jacques Chirac to warn Hariri of an attack that was either aimed at the French Ambassador in Lebanon or at Hariri himself. Chirac stressed on the authenticity of the reports. Unfortunately, Hariri over-estimated his security apparatus and didn’t know that a charge of at lest 1000Kg would explode next to his convoy. The U.N has launched its investigation into the assassination ever since the Lebanese government had asked for its help. However the invitation for U.N assistance in solving the crime was far from unanimous and divided the country in two camps; the Opposition led by Hezbollah and his ally General Michel Aoun (Christian Maronite) on one side and on the other, the current government led by Prime Minister Fouad Saniora and various prominent political figures like Samir Geagea (Christian Maronite) and Walid Jumblat (Druze). The current standoff between both parties is because of each party’s position toward the establishment of the International Tribunal. The opposition suspects the U.N of using the international tribunal to declare already made verdicts that will undoubtedly shake the current Lebanese political scene by pointing at Hezbollah. The opposition has its own doubts about the tribunal, stating that this tribunal has been set up to disarm Hezbollah and restructure the current Lebanese political scene by giving unconditional power to the current government. Moreover the opposition is concerned by the fact that the tribunal never examined the possibility of the Mossad being behind such an attack. Their argument clearly states that Israel would be the most beneficial from a weak neighbor than having a united Lebanon. On the other hand, the current government blames the opposition of covering up crucial evidence and backing the Syrians while they are the primary suspects in the murder. Throughout this crisis Hezbollah has been defending Syria and its Lebanese allies more than ever and blaming the U.S government of politicizing the tribunal. Since the beginning of this standoff 4 ministers have resigned from the democratically elect government and the opposition has been demanding the current government’s resignation.
There is no doubt, that the Hariri assassination constituted one of the most technologically advanced assassinations in Middle Eastern history. Thus raising doubts among suspicious Lebanese on who might actually be responsible for this attack. If in fact the attack was orchestrated by Syrian intelligence with the help of Hezbollah, one should be worried about what could lie ahead. Organizing such an attack demands complex resources and a well maintained intelligence apparatus thus worrying the Israelis and plunging the Middle East in a crisis between Hezbollah, Iran and Syria on one side and the Israelis on the other. Another possibility is that it is actually the Mossad that carried out the assassination to try and shakeup the Lebanese political scene by weakening and framing Hezbollah. This could lead to a popular Lebanese uprising against this party. In both cases one thing is surely the same, the main victims of this attack are no other that the average Lebanese, suffering from crippling economy and a political standoff between two political parties that might lead the country to its second civil war.
1 comments:
In an other wise brilliant essay, you loose all credability when you throw the Mossad into the mix. Israel wishes it had the ability to do what you think they can do, and many of us who dont blame Israel for all that is sick in the mid east wonder when you will wake up to the fact that when Arab kills Arab blaming the jew, is not the smart way to go any more.
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