I've been asked a few times now by my American friends to give meaning to today's events. So here is an attempt to my first political analysis:
First I will be defining all key terms in this particular situation. Whether it's a state or a non-state actor, whether it's the meaning of a particular village, city or region, and most importantly who was the target of today's atrocious acts.
Ayn Alaq: Town where on February 13th 2007 was hit by two terrorist attacks on two different buses. Ayn Alaq is located about 20 Km northeast of Beirut (Lebanese Capital) and is just under the town of Bekfaya. Bteghrine is a village that lies on top of both these small towns. All three towns are linked by the same highway.
Bekfaya: Hometown of the Gemayel family. Pierre Gemayel is the founder of the Kataeb Party. Bashir Gemayel (Son of Pierre Gemayel) is a former Lebanese President that got assassinated by the Syrian Social Nationalist Party 9 days before he was due to take office. Amine Gemayel (Brother of Bashir Gemayel) is a former Lebanese President and is the current President of the Kataeb party. Pierre Gemayel (Son of Pierre Gemayel) was the victim of the latest wave of political assassinations that hit the Lebanese Scene. In other words the Gemayel family has offered all of its blood for the independence of Lebanon.
Bteghrine: Hometown of the Murr family. Michel Murr is a Lebanese business tycoon. However, what is more important to note is that he dominated the political scene as the Minister of Interior for almost a decade and was a close ally to the Syrians (early 90's to early 2000) he is also a close ally to Michel Aoun. Elias Murr (Son of Michel Murr and Son in Law of the current Lebanese President) is the current Minister of Defense; he was the victim of an assassination attempt in 2005 and escaped miraculously. Elias Murr issued a press statement earlier this month after confiscating a Truck Load of weapons Heading to Hezbollah and refusing to hand it back. It is important to note that Michel Murr and Elias Murr are in two different political currents opposed to each other. However they remain on pristine terms with each other.
Tuesday February 13th 2007:
Two buses explode in the Town of Ayn Alaq, Killing 3 people and wounding more than two dozen. Mass Hysteria takes over the Lebanese scene. People throughout the country are confused and enraged considering that the attacks came on the eve of the anniversary of the Rafiq Hariri assassination. The locations of the terrorist attacks were meticulously chosen. They send multiple warning messages to various leaders and most importantly to all the Christian community.
I - Location of the attacks:
1-Having read the few paragraphs in the beginning of this post, one cannot but question why Ayn Alaq?
Ayn Alaq is located in the "Metn" region of Lebanon. This region is known to be the second Christian stronghold (Keserouan being the first) in Lebanon. However this region is politically mixed. Thus one might see inhabitants supporting Michel Aoun & Michel Murr or supporting the Gemayels. Therefore what is most important to note in this situation, is that the attack deliberately targeted civilians. This form of attack unfortunately will be the first of many to come, unless an accord is reached between both parties.
The only winner in this case would definitely be a non-state actor following Syrian (State) orders. This points to the SSNP which have a long history of terrorism in Lebanon. In fact, the only winner in this case is Syria. Syria has been seeking to destabilize Lebanon since it was forced to pull out of the country. By destabilizing the country, the Syrians prove to the international community in general and the Lebanese community especially that whenever the Syrians occupied Lebanon, security was not an issue and bombs never went off.
2-Ayn Alaq is the town below Bekfaya. If you have been following the news lately, you might understand why they are targeting Bekfaya. Former president Amin Gemayel was visiting high ranked officials in the U.S government this past week, including Pres. George W. Bush. This kind of meeting happens very rarely unless a major change is on the horizon. I recall the last meeting between Bush and Gemayel, occurred whenever the latter was asked by the former to mediate between the US and Iraq. Therefore this meeting is in no doubt drawing presidential aspects for Amin Gemayel. Unfortunately this presents a major problem for General M. Aoun and his allies, considering that General M. Aoun has presidential ambitions and that Hezbollah and the Gemayels were rarely on good terms. However I will be giving the opposition the benefit of the doubt, and rule out the possibility of them carrying out such an attack, for the simple reason that this would be political suicide and Michel Aoun cannot afford to lose any Christian support he has left.
3-Ayn Alaq's proximity to Bteghrine:
This past week, Elias Murr, The current minister of defense has ordered the capture of a Hezbollah truck filled with a mixture of light and mid-range weaponry. Hezbollah, after having admitted the truck was actually theirs, bluntly asks the government to return it. However as one might expect, the minister of defense, diplomatically and publicly let Hezbollah know that if the weapons were in fact intended to be used against any Israeli aggression, they would lie better within the hands of the army, leaving Hezbollah cornered without anything to say. Therefore one might wonder that Hezbollah might be sending Elias Murr a reminder, reminding him of the last attempt on his life. Telling him that we got you once, doesn’t mean we can’t get you again.
II - Timing of the attacks.
1-Eve of the second Commemoration of Rafiq Hariri.
The 14th of February 2007 was intended to show the opposition that the government has its own share of supporters. But more importantly this date was supposed to be a peaceful one; therefore the attack carries a major warning to the Lebanese community as a whole. What is important to note is that both sides were calling for peaceful demonstrations on that date however both were aware that an unfortunate even was going to occur BEFORE the ceremony.
Conclusion:
The only actor that would be benefiting from a destabilization in Lebanon is Syria. In fact the Syrian regime has been supporting all insurgencies in Iraq for one single reason. They are sending the Americans a message. And here it is: “We will leave Iraq alone, if you hand us back Lebanon”
So I ask all Lebanese, and especially my Christian comrades regardless of their political affiliations: Do you want to return to the Syrian Stone Age? Do you want to return to the days where you were kept from demonstrating on the streets? Do you miss those midnight kidnappings? Do you miss that water hose that was directed at you during peaceful demonstrations? Do you miss the Syrian Intelligence services following you? Do you miss the July war? Do you seek Lebanon’s termination?
If you do I feel sorry for you. However if you don’t I ask you, in fact, I even beg you to stand out from the crowd, and head downtown today. Not to support the government, far from it, but instead to celebrate life. Celebrate Beirut’s Beauty, Beirut’s Spring, Beirut’s Sunshine, Beirut’s Nightlife and Beirut’s Freedom.
First I will be defining all key terms in this particular situation. Whether it's a state or a non-state actor, whether it's the meaning of a particular village, city or region, and most importantly who was the target of today's atrocious acts.
Ayn Alaq: Town where on February 13th 2007 was hit by two terrorist attacks on two different buses. Ayn Alaq is located about 20 Km northeast of Beirut (Lebanese Capital) and is just under the town of Bekfaya. Bteghrine is a village that lies on top of both these small towns. All three towns are linked by the same highway.
Bekfaya: Hometown of the Gemayel family. Pierre Gemayel is the founder of the Kataeb Party. Bashir Gemayel (Son of Pierre Gemayel) is a former Lebanese President that got assassinated by the Syrian Social Nationalist Party 9 days before he was due to take office. Amine Gemayel (Brother of Bashir Gemayel) is a former Lebanese President and is the current President of the Kataeb party. Pierre Gemayel (Son of Pierre Gemayel) was the victim of the latest wave of political assassinations that hit the Lebanese Scene. In other words the Gemayel family has offered all of its blood for the independence of Lebanon.
Bteghrine: Hometown of the Murr family. Michel Murr is a Lebanese business tycoon. However, what is more important to note is that he dominated the political scene as the Minister of Interior for almost a decade and was a close ally to the Syrians (early 90's to early 2000) he is also a close ally to Michel Aoun. Elias Murr (Son of Michel Murr and Son in Law of the current Lebanese President) is the current Minister of Defense; he was the victim of an assassination attempt in 2005 and escaped miraculously. Elias Murr issued a press statement earlier this month after confiscating a Truck Load of weapons Heading to Hezbollah and refusing to hand it back. It is important to note that Michel Murr and Elias Murr are in two different political currents opposed to each other. However they remain on pristine terms with each other.
Tuesday February 13th 2007:
Two buses explode in the Town of Ayn Alaq, Killing 3 people and wounding more than two dozen. Mass Hysteria takes over the Lebanese scene. People throughout the country are confused and enraged considering that the attacks came on the eve of the anniversary of the Rafiq Hariri assassination. The locations of the terrorist attacks were meticulously chosen. They send multiple warning messages to various leaders and most importantly to all the Christian community.
I - Location of the attacks:
1-Having read the few paragraphs in the beginning of this post, one cannot but question why Ayn Alaq?
Ayn Alaq is located in the "Metn" region of Lebanon. This region is known to be the second Christian stronghold (Keserouan being the first) in Lebanon. However this region is politically mixed. Thus one might see inhabitants supporting Michel Aoun & Michel Murr or supporting the Gemayels. Therefore what is most important to note in this situation, is that the attack deliberately targeted civilians. This form of attack unfortunately will be the first of many to come, unless an accord is reached between both parties.
The only winner in this case would definitely be a non-state actor following Syrian (State) orders. This points to the SSNP which have a long history of terrorism in Lebanon. In fact, the only winner in this case is Syria. Syria has been seeking to destabilize Lebanon since it was forced to pull out of the country. By destabilizing the country, the Syrians prove to the international community in general and the Lebanese community especially that whenever the Syrians occupied Lebanon, security was not an issue and bombs never went off.
2-Ayn Alaq is the town below Bekfaya. If you have been following the news lately, you might understand why they are targeting Bekfaya. Former president Amin Gemayel was visiting high ranked officials in the U.S government this past week, including Pres. George W. Bush. This kind of meeting happens very rarely unless a major change is on the horizon. I recall the last meeting between Bush and Gemayel, occurred whenever the latter was asked by the former to mediate between the US and Iraq. Therefore this meeting is in no doubt drawing presidential aspects for Amin Gemayel. Unfortunately this presents a major problem for General M. Aoun and his allies, considering that General M. Aoun has presidential ambitions and that Hezbollah and the Gemayels were rarely on good terms. However I will be giving the opposition the benefit of the doubt, and rule out the possibility of them carrying out such an attack, for the simple reason that this would be political suicide and Michel Aoun cannot afford to lose any Christian support he has left.
3-Ayn Alaq's proximity to Bteghrine:
This past week, Elias Murr, The current minister of defense has ordered the capture of a Hezbollah truck filled with a mixture of light and mid-range weaponry. Hezbollah, after having admitted the truck was actually theirs, bluntly asks the government to return it. However as one might expect, the minister of defense, diplomatically and publicly let Hezbollah know that if the weapons were in fact intended to be used against any Israeli aggression, they would lie better within the hands of the army, leaving Hezbollah cornered without anything to say. Therefore one might wonder that Hezbollah might be sending Elias Murr a reminder, reminding him of the last attempt on his life. Telling him that we got you once, doesn’t mean we can’t get you again.
II - Timing of the attacks.
1-Eve of the second Commemoration of Rafiq Hariri.
The 14th of February 2007 was intended to show the opposition that the government has its own share of supporters. But more importantly this date was supposed to be a peaceful one; therefore the attack carries a major warning to the Lebanese community as a whole. What is important to note is that both sides were calling for peaceful demonstrations on that date however both were aware that an unfortunate even was going to occur BEFORE the ceremony.
Conclusion:
The only actor that would be benefiting from a destabilization in Lebanon is Syria. In fact the Syrian regime has been supporting all insurgencies in Iraq for one single reason. They are sending the Americans a message. And here it is: “We will leave Iraq alone, if you hand us back Lebanon”
So I ask all Lebanese, and especially my Christian comrades regardless of their political affiliations: Do you want to return to the Syrian Stone Age? Do you want to return to the days where you were kept from demonstrating on the streets? Do you miss those midnight kidnappings? Do you miss that water hose that was directed at you during peaceful demonstrations? Do you miss the Syrian Intelligence services following you? Do you miss the July war? Do you seek Lebanon’s termination?
If you do I feel sorry for you. However if you don’t I ask you, in fact, I even beg you to stand out from the crowd, and head downtown today. Not to support the government, far from it, but instead to celebrate life. Celebrate Beirut’s Beauty, Beirut’s Spring, Beirut’s Sunshine, Beirut’s Nightlife and Beirut’s Freedom.
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