Important Facts to Note

We all agree that the political climate has been deteriorating in Lebanon. I'm six thousand miles away and echoes are pretty bad from my side of the world. Everything seems possible at this point, whether it's breaking news from private intelligence agencies to random word of mouth, all point out to major changes on the political scene. This post is a brief one as i will be only stating the major facts that one should be aware of.

• The Iranian/Syrian meet didn't go as expected. Apparently the Iranians have kept the Syrians in the dark on a deal that they made with the Saudis. Although the press statement both countries (Iran & Syria) released at the end of their meet seemed optimistic, i am pretty sure that their honeymoon is coming to an end.
• The Iranians and Saudis made an "under the table" deal concerning the Lebanese situation. Terms are still ambiguous but i can tell you one thing: Signing a deal with the Saudis means abiding by U.S terms and conditions.
• Iran will agree on talks concerning its nuclear ambitions.
• The Saudis got the Palestinians to avoid an all out civil war with the "Mecca Agreement." But what is most important to note is that the Saudis are working on a deal with "Khaled Mashal" (Hamas' #1) without going through the Syrians. And as one might expect, the Syrians aren't tolerating it that much.
• Syria is cornered and has started using its back channels to work a deal with the U.S government over Iraq. Some intelligence analysts point out at agreements through the Swiss embassy, some other analysts point out at direct one on one talks.

What is important to note is that all of this happened within a few weeks, which on the political scene is lightning speed.

So how will this get translated on the Lebanese political scene:

Syria isn't dumb. And while it seeks a deal with the U.S government it is still keeping its hands on Lebanon and will not let go until she gets the last word.

One of the most feared politicians in Lebanon is "Nabih Berri." Not because he is head of the Amal movement, but because throughout his years he is the ONLY politician that knew how to strike back politically. Moreover whenever Berri talks everyone, whether it's the opposition or the current government, listens. Unfortunately he lies in the Syrian Camp and is Syria's last card, and the opposition's last hope. But make no mistake about it, if Berri goes on with his scheduled press conference and accuses key political figures, I am afraid the situation might get out of hand.