So many of us agree that Iraq is actually a mess right now. Insurgencies are getting more sofisticated, more tactical, more thouroughly carried out and for that matter they are getting more deadly. Until now, Iraq has been a complete failure and it's hard for me to admit it since i am a republican, and had envisioned it as the actual fall of a dictatorship and the rise of a true democracy.
What really scares me, is that my homeland is being transformed to a similar battle zone. Today was the deadliest day for the IDF (9 dead, 27 wounded). Hezbullah is gathering more support from shiia around the world everyday. Last i checked people were gathering up around in Iran and getting ready to cross turkish and syrian borders to join Hezbollah for what they are calling "the holy war" against Israel. creepy isn't it? What is even more remarkable is the backing that Hezbollah is gaining everyday a civilian is being targetted. I won't deny that Israel is actually advancing in its invasion of the south, but the more they do, the harder it is to keep ground. While they are doubling their efforts, the IDF is facing more atrocious resistance, losing more soldiers, killing more civilians, and most importantly, losing international support. As we saw today in Rome, the U.S. was the only country that was trying to defend Israel's position. And for that matter the U.S. is losing its patience specially after the targetting of the U.N. post that killed 4 observers (even though they won't admit it publicly).
I ask myself, is it Israel that underestimated Hezbollah, or Hezbollah that miscalculated Israel's response? well if you look thouroughly, you will find out that both didn't have any idea of the deamons they were facing. Hezbollah thought that they would do a prisoner exchange similar to the last one that occured couple years ago. Israel believed that after a week of bombardment, the resistance would lose its support and be faced with only one solution; its disarmament backed by the majority of the lebanese citizens. But unfortunately, they underestimated the power of hatred that the shiia always had for them thus underestimating the power of Hezbollah.
3 comments:
I don't think we underestimated the hatred of radical militant Muslims towards us.
I think we underestimated the hatred of moderate intellectual Lebanese towards us (Hizbullah provokes Israel and the moderate Lebanese back them instead of opposing them)
I think we overestimated the willingness of moderate Lebanese to stand up for themselves, to overcome prejudice, to open their eyes and to take back their country from the forces of evil.
Ofer (http://saneisraeli.blogspot.com)
" We are missing out on a large scale revolution."
So true!
The Lebanese started the revolution with their rather daring and heartening mass protests against Syria. It is a calamity that they didn't rise a little bit higher (yes, it'd have been hard and much more courageous than facing down Syria) and continued mass protests for the disarming of Hezballah. Perhaps they knew the chances are %90 of kicking Syria out through mass protests but maybe only 5% of getting Hezballah to disarm due to mass protests.
The revolution was underway. It made everyone who saw it happy (well, except for Syrians, some Iranians and Heballah supporters). It was beautiful and uplifting in and of itself. Also, it appeared it could gather pace and change things even more by forcing the Hezballah to disarm. Then Lebanon would really triumph and prosper and this, again, would be awesome and beautiful to see. I was watching from Israel and I was proud of the Lebanese. I was proud as one human being is of another who colourfully and effectively protests for freedom and I was so happy for these Lebanese. Imagine, I thought, this will continue and Lebanon will break free from all this pan-Arabic/Islamist "death to Israel". I was impressed by the way most Lebanese rejected the pavlovian response of blaming Israel for Hariri's death (as they were encouraged to).
Again and again since then, Hezballah started fighting with Israel, launching a relatively small number of rockets into northern Israel.
NOW would have been an ideal time for masses of Lebanese to stand together and shout out "enough conflict! Lebanon for Lebanon!" and to call out for Hezballah to willingly disarm. Perhaps now the chances would've been higher!
Again Hezballah struck inside Israel with no real response by Israel. Masses could've gathered together again declaring this is too dangerous and that Lebanon should be ruled by Lebanon and calling for Hezballah to disarm.
IT might have worked. At the very least, Hezballah might have been willing to disarm itself below the Litani while keeping forces further north and letting the Lebanese army deploy in the south. At least, Hezballah would not have begun a dramatic bombardment, killing and kidnapping and there wouldn't be a war now and maybe not even later as Lebanese society tightens the noose around Heballah's capabilities.
It really was a missed opportunity (and I'm not saying that were I a lebanese, I'd have had the courage and will-power to have protested against Hezballah's military capability).
Now it seems everybody is anxious to rally behind Nasrallah and Hezballah and to let them lead Lebanon into continued fighting. It's a natural, instinctive response but it's disastrous. It's easier to act that way than to be smart! To be smart means to do something very difficult: to point the finger right at Hezballah and to put the blame squarely with them rather than rally round and say "Israel is attacking us so we won't go against Hezballah".
It's time to make huge rallies at least against the Heballah's using people as unwilling human shields (as reports from Lebanese people make utterly clear is happening). This pressure would be awesome!
But I can't see it happening. Instead, everyone will accept that criticing Hezballah loudly and clearly shouldn't be done. What a pity!
Sorry for the length of my post.
A.
nice posting for this site..
really a wonderful blog...its really
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